Category Archives: Peter’s Commentaries

Peter Schiff Explains the New Fed Playbook

Once again, the financial world watched the Federal Reserve this week in the hopes of hearing some real news about whether or not interest rates would be raised in the near future. While the Fed continued to taper its quantitative easing, it said that interest rates would remain at zero for a “considerable time.” To economists like Peter Schiff this is more or less an open admission that the United States economy is in terrible condition. If the economy was improving, why would it need the continued intervention from the central bank?

In his latest written commentary, Peter compares historical Fed policies to the central banks’ actions in the past eight years. He explains clearly and succinctly why we’re in a new age of “forward guidance” and how disastrous it will be for the economy. Don’t look for interest rates to be raised at all, Peter argues. Instead, another dose of QE is probably right around the corner.

“The truth is the Fed knows the economy needs zero percent rates to stay afloat, which is why they have yet to pull the trigger. The last serious Fed campaign to raise interest rates led to the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006 and the financial crisis that followed in 2008. This occurred despite the slow and predictable manner in which the rates were raised, by 25 basis points every six weeks for two years (a kind of reverse tapering). At the time, Greenspan knew that the housing market and the economy had become dependent on low interest rates, and he did not want to deliver a shock to fragile markets with an abrupt normalization. But his measured and gradual approach only added more air to the real estate bubble, producing an even greater crisis than what might have occurred had he tightened more quickly.”

Read the Full Piece Here

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The Fed Is Destroying the Economy and Nobody Cares (Video)

Peter Schiff was interviewed by Paul Vigna on Wall Street Journal Video yesterday. Peter explained to Vigna the terrible effects that the Federal Reserve’s zero interest-rate policy is having on the United States economy. They spoke about how tepid the American job market is right now, and why Peter thinks a new round of quantitative easing is right around the corner. If you’d like to read Peter’s latest written commentary about why central banks are wrong to think that inflation is the cure for our economic woes, you can find it here.

“The next thing the Fed is going to do is launch an even bigger round of QE than the one they’re tapering off from. Because the US economy is not recovering. We are slipping back into recession. If the Fed doesn’t know that yet, it will by the end of the year… Tightening is all talk… [The Fed will eventually start] a new round of QE that will make the Europeans and Japanese blush.”

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Gold Videocast: Peter Schiff Answers Your FAQs (Video)

Peter answers some of the more challenging questions he has received from you, his loyal clients and subscribers. Learn what he really thinks about gold manipulation, why Wall Street hates gold, who should buy silver instead of gold, and more!

0:05 – Question: “According to the financial media, the world has ‘fallen out of love with gold.’ Is this really true?”

0:40 – The world cannot fall out of love with something it never loved in the first place – but it will fall out of love with fiat currencies.

2:03 – The time to buy gold is when everyone hates it. That’s why it’s so cheap.

2:30 – Question: “In your last Gold Videocast, Jim Rickards said that gold price manipulation is true. Why do you keep ignoring this issue”?

2:40 – Even if gold is being manipulated, I still want to own it.

3:10 – If manipulation is true, it allows my clients to buy more at artificially low prices.

3:38 – Manipulation cannot go on forever. Before long, free-market forces overwhelm artificial price controls.

4:17 – Question: “You keep warning about hyperinflation and a collapse of the US dollar, but it hasn’t happened! Has our modern banking system solved this problem?”

4:43 – You have to warn about things in advance to give people time to prepare, which is exactly what I did with the housing bubble.

6:03 – A recent article mentioned widespread Shrinkflation. If a company charges the same price for less of a product, that’s still inflation!

6:55 – Inflation will become hyperinflation if the government doesn’t take drastic measures.

7:15 – Question: “You always recommend gold as the best way to protect one’s wealth, but I can’t afford it. Is silver a good alternative?”

7:28 – Silver coins are better for small barter transactions.

7:57 – There is more potential for upside in silver. So if you can only afford a little right now, why not get started with the metal that may give you more bang for your buck?

8:10 – Eventually, you should hold both metals, but for some people it makes sense to get started with silver.

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The US Dollar’s Endgame (Video)

In his latest video blog post, Peter Schiff picks apart the last week’s US economic data, from the GDP to jobs numbers to the housing market to the performance of the Dow Jones. After explaining the endgame for the US dollar given our current economy, he lays out why the gold market is more resilient than the financial media is reporting.

“Janet Yellen is not going to wage war against inflation. She’s already surrendered to inflation… She is going to allow inflation to not only continue, but accelerate. And that is what’s good for gold. Interestingly, while the gold market sold-off on the bad economic data on Thursday, it recouped all of those gains on Friday. Not so for the stock market. The stock market went down a lot and then went down even more.”

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Gold Continuing to Outperform Stock Market (Video)

Peter Schiff appeared on CNBC’s Futures Now this week to share his expectations for the price of gold following the Federal Reserve’s policy statement. Peter also predicted the higher Q2 GDP number and explained why he thinks the US dollar isn’t nearly as healthy as everyone thinks. Finally, Peter emphasized that gold has had bad press in 2014, even though it has out-performed the stock market with an 8% rise in the first six months of the year.

“Gold has gone up every year but one since the year 2000. So if you’ve been calling for a rise in the price of the gold, you’ve been right every year except one. That’s not a broken record, that’s just understanding what’s going on and predicting a higher gold price. It’s the people that have been calling for gold’s demise every single year who don’t understand the fundamentals… No market goes up every single year… I know what’s driving the trend and that’s the central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve.”

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Posted in Interviews, Peter's Commentaries, Videos | 7 Comments

Rick Santelli vs. Conventional Ignorance (Video)

You may have seen the explosive debate between Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman on CNBC’s Halftime Report this week. Santelli admittedly “blew a gasket” when he began to challenge the conventional “wisdom” that the Federal Reserve has actually helped the economy with its quantitative easing. So was Santelli completely off-base? Has the Fed’s stimulus been successful? Absolutely not. In a longer segment on his radio show this week, Peter Schiff reviewed Santelli’s points and defended his argument that the Fed’s stimulus is actually laying the groundwork for much worse economic woes.

“When the collapse finally comes, they’re going to say, ‘Nobody could have seen this coming!’ … They’re not going to realize that this phony recovery and the economic monetary policy behind it is going to be the reason for the next crisis. But because it takes years to unfold, they can’t connect the dots, and they think that anybody who saw it early and warned about it is just a stopped clock.”

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Gold Videocast: Gold’s 2014 Half-Time Report

In the first edition of the new Gold Videocast, Peter delivers his verdict on the gold market for the first half of 2014, analyzes Janet Yellen’s performance so far as Fed Chair, and makes some contrarian forecasts for the rest of the year.

1:00 – Gold’s rise has confounded Wall Street banks that advised their clients to sell in expectation of a big correction.

1:40 – Even though the financial media has focused on the Dow breaking 17,000, gold has actually outperformed the Dow this year.

2:10 – Mainstream forecasters have bought into the narrative of a genuine US economic recovery and the ability of the Fed to effectively withdraw its monetary stimulus. In fact, the economy is not recovering and will relapse into recession, perhaps beginning in the second half of 2014.

3:17 – The price of gold is putting in a bottom, supported by the mining stocks. They led the market down in 2013, and are now leading it up.

4:15 – There is going to be a short squeeze as gold sellers try to buy back their positions when they realize the economy is not recovering.

5:30 – Even though the Fed’s own inflation measure has passed its target of 2%, Janet Yellen continues to claim inflation is under control.

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The Perfect Storm for Gold (Audio)

Chris Waltzek interviewed Peter Schiff on GoldSeek Radio last week. They began by discussing how the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut will influence the price of gold. They moved on to address the rising cost of living, Asian gold consumption, technical indicators of gold’s bottom, gold repatriation, buying precious metals with bitcoin, and much more.

“I think going into the second half of the year, people are going to be surprised by how weak the economy is… Yellen’s going to come back screaming for more QE. The gold market has to take off sometime between now and then… I think the problem that the traders are going to have is buying back the gold they sold… A lot of the gold that was dumped into the marketplace since the middle of last year is now very deep in some Chinese vault… It’s not coming back to the market. The people who bought gold at $1,300 or $1,400 – they ain’t selling it. They bought it to keep it, not to trade it.”

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Posted in Interviews, Peter's Commentaries, Videos | 1 Comment

Debt Is No Salvation

In his latest commentary, Peter Schiff addresses the ridiculous claim that America was built on consumer debt, as put forth by Steve Liesman, senior economic reporter for CNBC. Peter explains why a healthy economy is based upon savings and production, not debt. While most of the Western world seems intent on accumulating more debt, wise investors are protecting their economic futures with savings in physical gold and silver.

“Thus far 2014 has been a fertile year for really stupid economic ideas. But of all the half-baked doozies that have come down the pike (the perils of “lowflation,” Thomas Piketty’s claims about capitalism creating poverty, and President Obama’s “pay as you earn” solution to student debt), an idea hatched last week by CNBC’s reliably ridiculous Steve Liesman may in fact take the cake. In diagnosing the causes of the continued malaise in the U.S. economy he explained, “the problem is that consumers are not taking on enough debt.” And that “historically the U.S. economy has been built on consumer credit.” His conclusion: Consumers must be encouraged to borrow more money and spend it. Given that Liesman is CNBC’s senior economic reporter, I would hate to see the ideas the junior people come up with.

Before I get into the historical amnesia needed to make such a statement, we first have to confront the question of causation. Just as most economists believe that falling prices cause recession, rather than the other way around, Liesman believes that economic growth is created when people tap into society’s savings in order to buy consumer goods that they could not otherwise afford. But consumption does not create growth. Increasing productive output allows for greater consumption. Something needs to be produced before it can be consumed.”

Read the Full Commentary Here

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Was America Built on Debt? (Video)

Earlier this week, CNBC’s Steve Liesman revealed how backwards mainstream economic thinking is when he made the argument that America needs more consumer debt to have a healthy economy. Contrary to common sense and generally accepted knowledge, Liesman argued that America was built on debt and that consumers need to be taking on more of it. Peter Schiff wasn’t going to let these economic fallacies slide and tore into Liesman’s arguments on his radio show yesterday.

“Consumer credit was the cancer in the American economy… The smart thing to do, if you’re worried about the future… You should be paying off your debts. You should be creating a cushion. What about saving for a rainy day? Here you’ve got Steve Liesman saying, ‘No, no, go out and borrow for a rainy day.’ … You can’t borrow for a rainy day, because then you’re going to get soaked! This is asinine.”

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